cultivar_22_Final_EN

46 ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES CULTIVAR Issue 22 APRIL 2021 ern Europe, Asia and, more recently, Sub-Saharan Africa) recruited via transnational networks. Though caused by a variety of reasons, depop- ulation of both types of rural areas is inevitable and struc- tural: the uncoupling of a mutually beneficial territorial interdependence between ecology, community and the economy. Today, depopulation is the rule in most rural municipal- ities in the so-called “inte- rior”. Many are forecast to see demographic decline of more than 20% by 2030, a figure all the more surprising when one considers that several of these have been losing population for decades and some for almost 100 years. The exceptions fall into three main categories: (i) rural municipalities which have historically had mixed economies of agricul- ture, industry and services in geographical contexts marked by scattered demographic patterns and the fragmentation of property (e.g. municipalities in the Northeast region); (ii) rural municipalities with a strong farming base located within the direct area of influence of large and medi- um-sized cities, i.e. close to important markets, knowl- edge centres and qualified infrastructure and equip- ment (e.g. municipalities in the West region); (iii) rural municipalities where specific biophysical conditions (soil, water) allow the develop- ment of competitive export-based farming with a robust local base (e.g. part of the Fundão municipal- ity). The brief description above stresses the existence of a diverse range of rural areas; the structural nature of depopulation both in more ecologically fragile and geo- graphically remote rural areas and in rural areas heavily impacted by first-generation (urban industrial) and sec- ond-generation (urban finan- cial) economic development; and the existence of rural agricultural and post-agricul- tural municipalities with pos- itive demographic dynamics associated with particular contexts in terms of produc- tive structure, settlement patterns, distance to urban centres and biophysical con- ditions. In this context one can under- stand why reversing the struc- tural trend in demographic loss in many rural parts of the country is hard if not impossible. Added to this trend are new risks and threats, such as climate change and its consequences in terms, for example, of exac- erbating periods of severe drought and wildfires. Yet, at the same time new opportunities appear to be emerging from the creation of a new ecology-com- munity-economy relationship, such as the valuing and paying of ecosystem services or establishment of new food production-con- sumption chains oriented by aims of food security and safety, environmental sustainability, social justice and territorial cohesion, and therefore more locally rooted in ecological and social terms. However, it is not clear whether the impacts of these innovation fronts will be able to reverse the struc- tural trends in demographic loss. In fact, it is not unreasonable to imagine that these impacts may be as limited as the effects of the heritage-based approaches advocated for rural areas grounded on the certification of local products and on nature, Today, depopulation is the rule in most rural municipalities in the so-called “interior”. Many are forecast to see demographic decline of more than 20% by 2030 … The exceptions fall into three main categories: rural municipalities which have historically had mixed economies … rural municipalities with a strong farming base located within the direct area of influence of large and medium-sized cities … rural municipalities where specific biophysical conditions (soil, water) allow the development of competitive export-based farming … In this context one can understand why reversing the structural trend in demographic loss in many rural parts of the country is hard if not impossible. Added to this trend are new risks and threats, such as climate change and its consequences …