48 CADERNOS DE ANÁLISE E PROSPETIVA CULTIVAR N.º 30 ABRIL 2024 – Melhoramento e técnicas genómicas people7 – far more than even the 9.7 billion population predicted for 2050. Updated research in 2020 by Bloomberg Green concluded that in terms of the amount of food produced, “we could feed the population of two Earths without clearing a single new acre of land”.8 Producing enough food is not a problem. ii. Around 40% of food that is produced is wasted, either on the farm or at the retail or consumer stages.9 iii. People are hungry not because insufficient food is produced, but because they are too poor to buy the food that is available in even the least affluent countries. The root cause of hunger is poverty. If GM approaches such as NGTs won’t solve the problem of hunger, what will? The IAASTD10 report, sponsored by the World Bank and UN and conducted by over 400 scientists, did not endorse GM to feed the hungry. It noted that yields of GM crops were “highly variable” and that the patents on these crops could undermine food security – which was better served by agroecology.11 Finally, genetic engineering does not have a monopoly on innovation and progress. Agroecology already has solutions to many food and farming problems, and the field will continue to grow in knowledge and effectiveness. That growth would be expedited if the resources and funding that are currently devoted to hypothetical GM “solutions” were diverted to agroecological research and expansion. Sustainability We are promised NGT crops that are resistant to pests and diseases and better able to tolerate environmental stresses such as heat and drought. Thus, the narrative runs, NGT GM crops will help to address the challenges of climate change and make farming more sustainable, notably by reducing pesticide use (herbicides, insecticides, fungicides) – a key aim of the Green Deal and Farm to Fork Strategy. 7 https://tinyurl.com/mpae4my8 8 https://archive.ph/rtVDg#selection-3029.260-3029.345 9 https://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/driven-to-waste-the-global-impact-of-food-loss-and-waste-on-farms 10 IAASTD – International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development 11 https://tinyurl.com/y5bxkld3 12 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC123830. Graphic presentation of the data: https://datam.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datam/mashup/NEW_GENOMIC_TECHNIQUES/ 13 http://www.enveurope.com/content/24/1/24 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1600850 14 https://www.foodwatch.org/fileadmin/-INT/pesticides/2023-01-30_foodwatch_Pesticides_and_NGTSs.pdf Will new NGT crops be any better than first-generation GM crops at reducing pesticide use? The evidence so far suggests not. Research by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) found that of the NGT crops that are close to commercialisation, the largest trait group (six out of 16 plants) was herbicide-tolerant.12 These GM plants will continue the trend of older-style GM herbicide-tolerant crops, which have increased herbicide use.13 A report by the civil society organisation Foodwatch found that the main way to reduce pesticide use is already available, in the form of crop rotation and diversity. Even if disease-resistant NGT varieties were produced, development and testing would take years. In addition, converting crops such as grapes to new NGT varieties will be expensive and futile, given the short expected lifespan of genetically engineered disease resistance (which can only involve one or a few genes) in the face of rapidly mutating pathogens. Furthermore, almost 80% of EU pesticide use comprises herbicides and fungicides, and no NGT solutions are available or in the pipeline that could substantially reduce these uses. The report concludes, “Genetically modified crops suitable to achieve the ‘Farm to Fork’ objectives are not available. It seems they won’t be available within the next 10-15 years” – so that the potential of NGTs to reduce pesticide use “seems to be currently nearly zero”.14 These conclusions are backed by an analysis that linked EU sustainable development goals with relevant plant traits and reviewed existing research with NGT crop plants for evidence that their intended traits could fulfil the goals. The researchers focused on drought tolerance and resistance to fungal disease traits. They found that no NGT plants with drought tolerance are available on the market. Regarding disease resistance, no NGT plants able to withstand more than one stressor or different environments – vital for resilience in the field – are close to commercialisation. The researchers concluded that developing new GM plants will not be enough to achieve EU sustainability goals and
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